The GOP Takes Over the Jim Crow Congress, Immediately Rewrites History, and some 2015 Predictions

So…if you, like I….were wondering how the Jim Crow Congress was going to acknowledge how the quarter before they took over showed the highest GDP growth in over a decade (despite their constant assertions it was about to end in disaster), here’s your answer…

In a speech announcing the new Senate, which is now controlled by Republicans, [Turtle Man] said, “After so many years of sluggish growth, we’re finally starting to see some economic data that can provide a glimmer of hope; the uptick appears to coincide with the biggest political change of the Obama Administration’s long tenure in Washington: the expectation of a new Republican Congress.”

I haven’t given my year predictions yet, so today is the day.  Have to look up last year, but I was pretty dang close in the economic arena. I’m not sure yet exactly how much the GOP is going to try and screw over the economy any more, now that they can’t hide behind the slim D Senate majority, which makes the prospects really good for nothing happening in Washington.  Growth could push 4%, if we’re lucky and the crazies don’t do their thing.

However, the idiots are likely to try and extort the President for the money they have ordered him to spend (i.e. the “debt ceiling”) and the strategy they take in that arena will have impacts in the 1-1.5% area like they did in 2013.   So that 4% is pretty sloppy until I see some strategy discussion.

Oil is the big thing now. Texas is going to get crushed, as are folks who overspent. From what I’ve read, there’s about 1-2,000,000 extra barrels of oil on the world market. Until people “burn that up” as they say, prices will stay low, which (as noted and noted again) is good for most folks and bad for others.

Prices aren’t going to go up soon, so enjoy. Pleas don’t be stupid and buy a big car though, because a few years down the road, things might change. If we had sane leaders, we’d use the savings from gas/oil and invest even more in the solar/wind arena. Energy is life for an economy, and lower gas prices make for easier to move goods, which is cheaper good in today’s global economy, Buy those airline stocks with that oil stock money.

The U.S. does seem poised to reap continued benefits from China’s pollution and Europe’s…intransigence. Putin is a wild card, as per. Obama’s cool has been great against his (to us) aggression. Cuba is going to be fun to watch. A couple of full tourist seasons and their per capita will triple. How the commies deal with the wealth can be interesting. Trustafarians on a country-wide level.

So let’s get it on, shall we?

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Usually the One that Predicts the Future is the One we want to listen to….

Back in 2004, Sloan, professor of Earth sciences at UC Santa Cruz, and her graduate student Jacob Sewall published, “Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west” (subs. req’d). They used powerful computers “to simulate the effects of reduced Arctic sea ice,” and “their most striking finding was a significant reduction in rain and snowfall in the American West.”

“Where the sea ice is reduced, heat transfer from the ocean warms the atmosphere, resulting in a rising column of relatively warm air,” Sewall said. “The shift in storm tracks over North America was linked to the formation of these columns of warmer air over areas of reduced sea ice.” In January, Sewall wrote me that “both the pattern and even the magnitude of the anomaly looks very similar to what the models predicted in the 2005 study (see Fig. 3a [below]).”

via Climatologist Who Predicted California Drought 10 Years Ago Says It May Soon Be ‘Even More Dire’ | ThinkProgress.

It’s funny, but this has happened a few times now.  You see…when 97%+ of the world’s scientists are using their models to predict the future based on known things (like the measurements of the world getting warmer because of human activity), they get to start making predictions about the future based on that knowledge.

The deniers just sit there and go “nu-uh!!”.  They have no predictions, no knowledge, no point, just flat out denial, repeated endlessly.

Kansas….that’s the joke.

Kansas tax act most regressive in nation / LJWorld.com —

Equally important, the act dramatically changes the Kansas tax system, shifting the income tax burden from the wealthy and prosperous to working people. The act provides that all income of business owners is tax-free (except in the unusual case where a regular corporation is used). Although the act was promoted as a boost to small business, there is no limit on the size of business that can be exempt from tax. Income of professionals — such as doctors, lawyers, architects, and accountants —practicing in partnerships will be tax-free. In a law firm, for example, the partners will pay no tax, while the clerical staff will continue on the tax rolls. Income received from partnerships and trusts will be tax-free. Wealthy Kansans who own real estate, stocks, bonds and other investments will simply transfer those assets to a partnership or trust, thereby freeing all their investment income from tax. All income of farmers will be exempt from tax. Who will still be paying Kansas income tax?Only three groups: 1) employees, 2) some retirees and 3) individuals whose investments are so modest that they cannot afford to create a trust or partnership to shelter their investment income.

This will be curious to watch. I think you’ll see a lot of paper flying, as a lot of firms “re-locate”, we’ll probably see a state GDP uptick on paper…and a massive drop off in tax revenue and quality of life for the other 90%. Other states will also lose revenue, as anything that can be funneled through Kansan shell companies will be. And lawsuits will rule the day as the real Kansan economy crumbles in under 5 years. Or maybe not…extreme test cases are always curious. It took nearly 7 years for the largest tax cuts in U.S. history (Bush 2001-3) to crush the economy and cause a debt “crisis” and downgrade. However, in that case you started with a fundamentally strong economy (U.S. economy circa 2000), not one already failing (Kansas 2012). — http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2012/may/27/kansas-tax-act-most-regressive-nation/