The most basic, and perhaps profound, reason that OBAMA WILL WIN

Washington Post 

“The republic of Washington and Jefferson is now in danger of becoming the democracy of debt and despair,” Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told delegates at the GOP convention delegates this past week. “Our great nation is coming apart at the seams.”

He was one of many Republican speakers who tried to tap into the public’s unease about the country’s future. In just days, Democrats will present a starkly different vision at their three-day convention in Charlotte, N.C., sketching out a portrait of a nation on the rebound after the worst financial crisis since the Depression.

They will try to play a consistent theme in America’s history —optimism.

By both showing how the change has worked, the hope stays alive.

Much like in 2008, the Republicans are playing checkers, while Obama plays hyper-dimensional Chess. Barring some major event, I’ll stand by this prediction for a few more months.

Note: I felt in 2004 the situation was reversed and the Democratic strategy of pointing out that Bush’s polices would *lead* to economic collapse (as they did) was weaker than the Republican’s message of “OH MY GOD!! 9/11!!!”.

There is a public record of that, BTW.

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Pundit calls out political operative’s “Obama isn’t American” b.s.

GOP Convention: Chris Matthews tees off on Reince Priebus – Tim Mak – POLITICO.com

This has been a fairly consistent theme by Republicans. It’s a political move, built on rhetoric and repetition, designed to push the indredibly destructive idea that Obama isn’t really American and secretly hates the country.   The entire birther movement is predicated on this assumption about the current President.

The sad part is how well it resonates with low-information and low-intelligence voters who have no functioning political memory (I.e. Obama is European for passing a stimulus…but Bush’s stimuli were all fine and dandy...just like Paul Ryan said at the time).   Further to this point, if anyone brings up something Bush did in the context of Obama, it’s always about “blaming Bush”…even if one is simply pointing out what happened and what was said sometime during history.

Many of the idiot brigade now openly claim that Obama was trying to hide his birth certificate and didn’t release it until 2011.   That’s because they ignored him releasing it before the election in 2008.

One has to wonder if idiots, racists and Mormons will be enough to carry Romney in November. We shall see.

Update: Video segment.

BTW, note how as “evidence” Priebus cites the Political Lie of the Year, 2010.

That’s how bad it is…the point man for the GOP has a go to point…which is a lie…yet somehow it’s the guy pointing out he’s a liar that is the bad guy.    That’s a broken culture, right there.

United States Total Employment By President 1977-2012 (Misleading Statistics Lesson)

I was recently going about my daily business when I was confronted on the Facebook with the following chart…

"Reason" Magazine Net Jobs Analysis...From the Mercatus Project of George Mason University*

Taking these raw numbers without any context leaves a bit to be desired on the “providing insight” part of statistical analysis.

During the ensuing discussion, I noted a couple of things…first that 5 months remain in Obama’s first term. At the current roughly 200K-job/mo pace we are gaining, that’s another 1M on his tally.  As we’ll see in a moment, looking at *how* these numbers came about can be quite enlightening.

As noted in the charts, all raw data is provided from here.

We’re going to start with Jimmy Carter.  In the following analysis, we are calling the inaugural month the first one they are responsible for, going through December of their last year.   A quick comparison shows this to be very close to how Veronique de Rugy of the Mercatus Center* did the original chart.

Non Farm Employment under Carter, Seasonally Adjusted

Non Farm Employment under Carter, Seasonally Adjusted, 1977-1980

From here you can see something that will be a consistent theme in the following analysis…a stagnant job market causing issues for a sitting President.  Employment peaked in March, 1980, having moving little since the previous summer.  The long, hot year and rising unemployment was too much for voters, and a change was made.

Enter the Reagan…

Total Employment Reagan, Seasonally Adjusted, 1981-1988

Total Employment Reagan, Seasonally Adjusted, 1981-1988. One can see how Reagan faced initial skepticism, but has gained long-term respect.

Here we see Carter’s “malaise” lasting well into 1983.  The lowpoint in unemployment, to Reagan’s great fortune, came late in 1982.  By the time the election rolled around in 1984, everything appeared to be on track.  Employment continued to expand throughout the rest of his term.  Then we had to pay for it, and the business cycle shifted again.

Total Employment, Bush the Elder, Seasonally Adjusted, 1989-1992

Total Employment, Bush the Elder, Seasonally Adjusted, 1989-1992. Here we see Bush the elder’s problem, employment peaking two and half years prior to the election.

Bush the Elder saw the peak of the Reagan “what’s debt?” economic expansion, and watched as nearly 2M jobs evaporated after peaking in Jun of ’90. Economic recovery in job form came only in the last few months before the 1992 election, not nearly enough to stop the new kid on the block from stealing heart and minds and electoral votes.

Next we get to *see* what the longest and largest and most stable economic expansion in U.S. history like…in bar graph form.

Total Employment, Clinton, Seasonally Adjusted, 1993-2000

Total Employment, Clinton, Seasonally Adjusted, 1993-2000. It really is pretty impressive, standing there all big and growing like that, Mr. President.

Like all the other graphs, I’ve marked the low and high point in employment during Clinton’s term. That’s how it’s done, folks.  Really can’t ask for more.  Well…maybe a bit less disgracing the Office of the President.  He did, however, get impeached for that.  Not sure if it was the peace and prosperity or the blowjob that got him impeached, but something sure made the Republicans mad.  It didn’t stick in the Senate, but did doom his VP.

Regardless, after so much peace and prosperity, we decided it was time for a change.   And oh what a change it was.

Total Employment, Bush the Lesser, Seasonally Adjusted, 2001-2008

Total Employment, Bush the Lesser, Seasonally Adjusted, 2001-2008. Bush was all over the map. First losing 3M jobs, then finding 9M building houses, then losing 4M in a year after the bust.

Oh George.  What can we do about this one.  If you want to see what a bursting real estate bubble looks like?  Click on that one.  First we see the extended era of peace end on 9/11.  Then we see the prosperity depart as we marched to war, hitting the  low employment point just as the mission in Iraq was “accomplished.”    Then we went on an easy-credit mortgage-fueled home-building binge, topping out with the greatest number of working Americans ever reported, 138,023,000 in January 2008.

By the end of 2008, 4M of those jobs had disappeared, and the Great Recession wasn’t nearly done.

Total Employment, Obama, Seasonally Adjusted, 2009-2012

Total Employment, Obama, Seasonally Adjusted, 2009-2012. Here we see the second half the Great Recession, with 4M more jobs going away in Obama’s first year. Since then there’s been a steady grind upwards, as we work to recover lost ground.

And this brings us up to the present data (Jul 2012).  Here we see the graphic and dramatic employment results of the Great Recession.  Four Million Jobs gone in the first year, reaching Obama’s lowpoint in February of 2010.  Since then (as the “failed” Stimulus package was implemented) we’ve seen steady employment gains over the intervening two years, finally within grasping distance of where from we started.

To wrap the whole thing together…here’s the whole thing together…

Total_Employment_1977_2012

Total_Employment_1977_2012. All of it. Together.

Here we see each and every year laid out side by side.  Now longer term business cycles become more apparent, and we see the huge dip created by the crash of 2008.

All in all I wanted to provide this analysis because I found the original chart to be so incredibly lacking in context as to be misleading.

* the Mercatus Project is funded (to a noticeable degree) by the Koch Bros, who have used some of the $100M they pledged to unseat the current President producing graphs like this…which don’t tell the whole story.  Often telling so little of the story, they might as well be lying.

"Reason" Magazine Net Jobs Analysis...From the Mercatus Project of George Mason University*

Taking these raw numbers without any context leaves a bit to be desired on the “providing insight” part of statistical analysis.

Playing Any PC game on your Phone? Coming Sooner than you think…

The application is called Kainy and was brought to our attention in a comment on the Minecraft: Pocket Edition update article we wrote yesterday. This application is a 2 part program, one part being the actual application for your Android device (the client), and the other being for your PC which streams your games to you as it runs them (the server). Essentially this is your own OnLive network for your own PC games to play on your Android devices.

via Meet Kainy, the application that lets you play PC games on your Android device anywhere.

This is pretty dang awesome.  Letting your phone act as a simple terminal means mostly what it wants is bandwidth, which wifi and/or 4g can bring in spades.

Testing report coming soon…

Ignoring the Media vetting a candidate is not the same as them ignoring vetting a candidate

Today, the website BuzzFeed published a clip of the speech along with an article explaining some past and current context for Obama’s remarks. The website claimed the clip was “not previously available online.” The editors at Breitbart.com responded that the video on Buzzfeed had been “selectively edited” and said that they would release the full footage tonight on Fox News.

But there’s nothing new about the clip or Obama’s role in the controversy at Harvard Law School. In 2008, as a part of our quadrennial election special The Choice 2008, FRONTLINE ran the same footage of the speech as a part of an exploration of Obama’s time at Harvard Law School, where he graduated in 1991. It’s been online at our site and on YouTube since then. You can see that part of the film below.

Isn’t it curious how if you ignore that someone has done something, you can claim,  in good faith, they haven’t done that same thing.   Some people truly believe that their own perception is reality.  These people are largely ignorant idiots.

And in a complete coincidence, they don’t watch PBS.
—-
The Story Behind the Obama Law School Speech Video | Government / Elections / Politics | FRONTLINE | PBS
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/government-elections-politics/the-story-behind-the-obama-law-school-speech-video/

One again, time will tell…but this looks like yet another Foreign Policy Homerun for the Kenyan Muslim Usurper

WASHINGTON –  North Korea raised hopes Wednesday for a major easing in nuclear tensions under its youthful new leader, agreeing to suspend uranium enrichment at a key facility and refrain from missile and nuclear tests in exchange for a mountain of critically needed U.S. food aid.

It was only a preliminary step but a necessary one to restart broader six-nation negotiations that would lay down terms for what the North could get in return for abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang pulled out of those talks in 2009 and seemingly has viewed the nuclear program as key to the survival of its dynastic, communist regime, now entering its third generation.

via North Korea Says It Will Halt Nuclear Activities | Fox News.

The agreement, as per, includes the verification step so necessary to make this stuff happen.

It also opened the way for international nuclear inspections after years when the North’s program went unmonitored.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the agreement, which was announced at separate but simultaneous statements by the long-time adversaries, was a modest step but also “a reminder that the world is transforming around us.”

“We, of course, will be watching closely and judging North Korea’s new leaders by their actions,” Clinton told a congressional hearing.

I’m all for giving the new kid a chance to be decent and get NK back to being part of the human race.

Buffet challenges GOP dollar-for-dollar on debt (Match this, Mitt!)

BOSTON — Warren Buffett is willing to put his money where his mouth is, if only congressional Republicans would join him.

The billionaire investor, in the new issue of Time magazine, says he will donate $1 to paying down the national debt for every dollar donated by a Republican in Congress. The only exception is Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell — for whom Buffett said he would go $3-to-$1.

The idea stems from a New York Times opinion piece Buffett wrote last August in which he said the rich ought to pay more taxes. It sparked an instant controversy, with some Washington conservatives calling on the 81-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” to voluntarily pay extra.

“It restores my faith in human nature to think that there are people who have been around Washington all this time and are not yet so cynical as to think that (the deficit) can’t be solved by voluntary contributions,” the Berkshire Hathaway CEO told Time for an article hitting newsstands on Friday.

He went on to tell the magazine that what the country needed was a system that favored people who were not born investors.

via Buffet challenges GOP dollar-for-dollar on debt – Business – US business – msnbc.com.

See folks…these are the kinds of balls you need to be one of richest guys on the planet.  Trust me, folks…many who talk about the vast economic disparity in this country don’t do it out of “envy” or “resentment”.     At this point, it’s no shit about the basic common courtesy of not being a greedy asshole.

And I LOVE that one of the folks he is calling out here is my b.s. spewing Senator, John Cornyn.  Here’s what he said…(well…”tweeted”).

Cornyn Calls out Buffett on Personal Contributions to Debt Reduction

Cornyn Calls out Buffett on Personal Contributions to Debt Reduction

Yes, they will.  Maybe that’s something campaigns can now compete over…especially Republican campaigns that constantly talk about reducing the debt.  Instead of buying commercials talking about reducing the debt..send that money directly to pay down the debt.  This does three things, 1) puts money where the mouth is, which is very convincing and 2) makes Warren Buffett spend some money, always hard to do and 3) IT PAYS DOWN THE DEBT.

Then, come election day…we vote for the guy (or gal) that did the most to ACTUALLY BRING DOWN THE DEBT.

UPDATE: OH, and BTW…if neither side will give that first dollar, I will….but I’m going to beg for it on the street first, just to make a point.

IT’S WORKING INTERNET, RESISTANCE IS ESSENTIAL TO THE NETWORK!

Nintendo, Electronic Arts and Sony Electronics — some of the largest video game companies in the world — have all pulled their support for an online bill that could encourage censorship online, according to an updated list of supporters of the bill.

Those three companies all supported the Stop Online Piracy Act SOPA when it first entered Congress, according to a report from Joystiq in November.

SOPA, along with the PROTECT IP act in the Senate, give content-producing companies the right to order a take down for a website that they believe is infringing on a copyright. If you even host links to content that infringes on a copyright, you have to take it down

via Now The Largest Game Companies In The World Have Dropped Support For A Bill The Internet Hates.

This bill should die a bad death at this point.  Social media has been somewhat ascendent as of late, and as much as people like to bitch and moan about how shit doesn’t work and everythings broken, and blah, blah, blah…they fail to notice the little victories.

They fail to notice the beach as the tide rolls out.

Keep fighting internets.  You wins somes, you lose sums, but as long as you keep fighting for what you believe in, there is no way to truly lose the war (as far as one can know).

Let’s win this one…for the children *AND* the lulz.

Bill Gates Mug Shot Silhouette in all Office Software

This one is pretty fun.  Ran into this blog post yesterday about the picture being in Sharepoint.

I said…hrrm…that looks familiar…just like that placeholder in Outlook…

And yep…it’s him…

Bill Gates Mug Shot in Outlook

Bill Gates Mug Shot in Outlook

For those that wonder how this whole thing started…

Bill Gates was arrested for speeding in Albuquerque. He frequently was caught speeding in his Porsche 911. That day he was driving along with Paul Allen. The bail was set at a thousand dollars. Bill Gates, although only 21, was very successful in his early years at Microsoft, and was immediately able to post bail from his wallet full of cash.

..hence the smile.

I’m sure we’ll find out if this got official approval at any point soon…but either way…I find it hilarious.   If anyone ever digs up a mugshot of RPN, you’ll find a nice big smile on that face as well.

Seems like a good week to end Wars

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama on Friday declared an end to the Iraq war, one of the longest and most divisive conflicts in U.S. history, announcing that all U.S. troops would be withdrawn from the country by year’s end.

Obama’s statement put an end to months of wrangling over whether the U.S. would maintain a force in Iraq beyond 2011.

“After nearly nine years,” the president, “America’s war in Iraq will be over.”

via Obama announces total Iraq troop withdrawal – seattlepi.com.

Wonder if this guy will ever get a prize for doing so much to bring peace and freedom to the parts of the world that long for it.

....aaaand done.

Proposed 28th Amendment: Privacy

Proposed 28th Amendment: The Government of the United States shall make no law that infringes upon the right of human citizens of this country to privacy.  If information about a citizen is exchanged, that citizen should be informed and have the right to consent or veto, such exchange.  If monies are exchanged for information regarding a citizen, that citizen is entitled to all proceeds exchanged without informed consent.

I think it’s time we add something like to the Constitution.  Short, sweet, and done is the right way.  The Constitution isn’t about the Government granting rights to citizens, it’s about forbidding the Government from taking them away. 

Currently we have something called the “Patriot Act”.   One of the (many, many, many, many, many) things that it does is allow our Government to purchase private information regarding the habits, activities, relationships, etc. about a citizen.  Pretty much everything.  All attached to one number.   The Government *buys* that information, about you, with your money. 

This, to me, is all sorts of wrong.    It needs to be cut off at the knees.   We need to update the Constitution.

Here’s how we do it….[note: this is a part of the Constitution itself.  It was made to be updated to reflect a changing reality, that’s how cool it is.]

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary [1], shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States [2], shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress.

Steps:

1. Contact your Federal Congressmen.  Both your House representative and your Senator.  You need both of them.  Tell them the exact text above.  Tell ’em you want it, now!

2. Contact your State Congressmen.  Both your State House representative and your State Senator (you probably have both) tell them to call a “Constitutional Convention” (use those words) to vote on the 28th Amendment. 

3. ??*

4.  Profit/Privacy/Freedom.

——-

* Hey, I’ll be honest, never done this before.  But we need to do it, stat.  I think it can be done.  If we keep it simple, focused (laser-like), and understand that, yes, this will disrupt quite a few industries and sketchy laws, and yes, THAT’S THE DANG POINT!

Obama’s Poker Face

I’ve noticed a few folks mentioning how Obama has one heck of a poker face.  After looking at the events of the past few days in hindsight, I find it very hard to disagree.

The best example came last Saturday night, as he sat through this joke by SNL’s Seth Myers…

Note that laughing smile when they pan back to the President…that’s an act.   Completely.   Not only did Obama know exactly where Osama was, but also that there was a kill-squad en route to that very location while the joke was being told.

That, my friends, is a serious poker face.

So I did a quick googling (the poor man’s Lexis-Nexis) and found this tidbit…the guy does play poker…and does it just like he presides.  BTW, this is dated 9/24/2007, so it’s well before things got real.

Obama was a regular at the low-stakes games — sometimes stud poker, sometimes draw — designed to break up the tedium of long legislative sessions. Poker, beer and cigars were staples; Democrats and Republicans, lawmakers and even the lobbyists who Obama sometimes rails against dealt the cards and placed their bets.

The traits Obama displayed around the card table those many nights are ones he brings to his presidential bid and are certain to be evident — and analyzed — if he wins the White House.

By his poker buddies’ accounts, Obama is careful and focused. He’s not easily distracted and doesn’t give away his intentions unless it’s to his advantage. He’s not prone to taking risky chances, preferring to play it safe. But he’s also serious and competitive: When he plays, he plays to win.

“It’s a fun way for people to relax and share stories and give each other a hard time over friendly competition,” Obama said by e-mail. “In Springfield, it was a way to get to know other senators — including Republicans.”

Obama, then a state senator, was a founding member of the group. He became known as a cautious player with a good poker face, someone who paid more attention to the game than to the chatter and laughter that accompanied it.

Obama studied the odds carefully, friends say. If he had strong cards, he’d play. If he didn’t, he would fold rather than bet good money on the chance the right card would show up when he needed it.

That reputation meant that he often succeeded when he decided to bluff.

“When Barack stayed in, you pretty much figured he’s got a good hand,” said Larry Walsh, a former senator.

More than one lawmaker teased Obama about his careful style of play.

“I always used to kid him that the only fiscally conservative bone in his body I ever saw was at the poker table with his own money,” said state Sen. Bill Brady, a Republican from the central Illinois city of Bloomington. “I said if he would be half as conservative with taxpayer dollars, the state would be a lot better off.”

Nice little dig in there at the end, but what you gonna do, it’s politics.   

And we have a master playing it for us.